{"id":4167,"date":"2026-06-05T12:39:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-05T20:39:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/klamathid.org\/home\/?p=4167"},"modified":"2026-06-24T09:22:26","modified_gmt":"2026-06-24T17:22:26","slug":"2026-c-shasta-and-klamath-water-temps","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/klamathid.org\/home\/2026\/06\/05\/2026-c-shasta-and-klamath-water-temps\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 C.shasta and Klamath Water Temps"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container has-pattern-background has-mask-background nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"max-width:1248px;margin-left: calc(-4% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-4% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><!-- ================================================================\n     KID newsletter post (DRAFT) \u2014 \"The Facts on Spring Flows and Young Salmon\"\n     CURRENT DATA build (all reporting traps, natural-origin). 2026-06-05.\n     UPDATED 2026-06-12: \"Update \u2014 June 12\" section moved to TOP; river-mile\n     disease-gradient chart added; early-June die-off quantified; net-inflow note\n     corrected (A Canal accounted for, not subtracted). The two Chart.js figures\n     and their data are UNCHANGED from the 6\/5 build.\n     UPDATED 2026-06-21: both timelines extended to 6\/21 (WY2026 Reclamation +\n     Karuk Final temp); deficit-day count and temp axis recomputed.\n     UPDATED 2026-06-22: plain-language summary + flows explainer + dead-fish\n     accounting; Fall Creek Hatchery moved ABOVE the former Iron Gate Dam\n     (675,000 smolts released 5\/14, CDFW).\n     DATA USE (Karuk Tribe, per G. Johnson, Water Quality Program): the water-\n     temperature data Karuk collects at Iron Gate may be cited; USGS discharge\/\n     stage are NOT taken from the Tribe's website (the flows chart below uses\n     Reclamation's UKL accounting, not USGS-via-Karuk).\n     UPDATED 2026-06-22b: CDFW statement reflected in a 'What CDFW reported' box\n     (timing rationale, P. minibicornis, >99% natural mortality, post-removal\n     improvement). Supply\/delivery TAF figures intentionally NOT included.\n     UPDATED 2026-06-22c: overlaid 2024 (dam-removal WY) Keno release on chart 2,\n     aligned by month-day (2024_WaterTracking.xlsx ReclamationTracker col I; Feb 29 dropped).\n     PROVISIONAL DATA: Karuk Tribe consent obtained for temperature-data use\n     (June 2026); figures remain preliminary and subject to revision.\n     (Counsel review still advised before publication.)\n     Paste the ENTIRE block into one Avada \"Code Block\" element.\n     ================================================================ -->\n<link rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https:\/\/fonts.googleapis.com\/css2?family=Fraunces:opsz,wght@9..144,500;9..144,600&family=Spline+Sans:wght@400;500;600&display=swap\">\n\n<div class=\"kid-salmon-post\">\n  <style>\n    .kid-salmon-post{\n      --font-sans:'Spline Sans',system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;\n      --font-serif:'Fraunces',Georgia,'Times New Roman',serif;\n      --parchment:#F7F1E2; 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0;padding:0;list-style:none;counter-reset:hypo;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;}\n    .kid-salmon-post .kid-hypo-list li{position:relative;padding-left:40px;font-size:clamp(15px,1.7vw,17px);line-height:1.55;counter-increment:hypo;margin:0;}\n    .kid-salmon-post .kid-hypo-list li::before{content:counter(hypo);position:absolute;left:0;top:1px;width:25px;height:25px;border-radius:50%;background:var(--gold);color:#fff;font-family:var(--font-serif);font-weight:600;font-size:14px;line-height:25px;text-align:center;}\n    .kid-salmon-post .kid-hypo .src{font-size:13px;color:var(--color-text-tertiary);margin-top:6px;}\n    \/* ---- agency (CDFW) box ---- *\/\n    .kid-salmon-post .kid-agency{background:#fff;border:1px solid rgba(31,92,115,0.20);border-left:5px solid var(--teal);border-radius:0 12px 12px 0;padding:clamp(16px,2.6vw,24px);margin:22px 0;}\n    .kid-salmon-post .kid-agency .h{font-family:var(--font-serif);font-weight:600;font-size:clamp(15px,1.8vw,18px);color:var(--teal-deep);margin:0 0 12px;}\n    .kid-salmon-post .kid-agency ul{margin:0;padding:0;list-style:none;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:11px;}\n    .kid-salmon-post .kid-agency li{font-size:clamp(14.5px,1.6vw,16.5px);line-height:1.55;padding-left:22px;position:relative;margin:0;}\n    .kid-salmon-post .kid-agency li::before{content:\"\";position:absolute;left:4px;top:9px;width:7px;height:7px;border-radius:50%;background:var(--teal);}\n  <\/style>\n\n  <div class=\"kid-prov-banner\"><b>Provisional data.<\/b> Figures on this page are preliminary and subject to revision as monitoring continues. The water-temperature data is the Karuk Tribe\u2019s measured record at Iron Gate, used with the Tribe\u2019s permission.<\/div>\n\n  <p class=\"eyebrow\">Klamath Irrigation District \u00b7 Setting the Record Straight<\/p>\n  <h2>The Facts on Spring Flows and Young Salmon<\/h2>\n  <div class=\"rule\"><\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"kid-update\">\n    <span class=\"kid-chip\">Updated \u00b7 June 21, 2026<\/span>\n    <h3>Update \u2014 June 2026: what really happened to the young Chinook<\/h3>\n\n    <div class=\"kid-plain\">\n      <p class=\"lede\"><b>The short version.<\/b> In early June, large numbers of young Chinook salmon turned up dead in the upper Klamath River. They were almost entirely <b>hatchery fish<\/b> \u2014 part of the <b>675,000 young Chinook<\/b> California released on <b>May\u00a014<\/b> from the Fall Creek Hatchery, about <b>7\u00a0miles above the old Iron Gate Dam site<\/b> and roughly <b>200\u00a0miles from the ocean<\/b>.<\/p>\n      <p>They went into the upper river in mid-May, and \u2014 according to the Oregon State University scientist examining them \u2014 instead of heading for the ocean they lingered for weeks right where a natural fish parasite (<i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i>) concentrates. As the water warmed and parasite levels climbed, sitting in that reach is what made them sick. Fish that move down to cooler water and reach the sea can shed the infection.<\/p>\n      <p>The <b>wild<\/b> run had mostly passed through weeks earlier, while the water was still cold, and largely escaped the parasite. And the threatened fish the river\u2019s flow rules are written to protect \u2014 <b>coho salmon<\/b> \u2014 live in cool tributaries, not the warm summer mainstem where this happened.<\/p>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"kid-bottomline\">\n    <p class=\"bl-title\">The bottom line<\/p>\n    <ul>\n      <li>These were <b>hatchery Chinook<\/b> \u2014 not the wild run, and not the threatened coho the flow rules exist to protect.<\/li>\n      <li>Their deaths trace to <b>where and when they were released<\/b>: far upstream, into warming water, in mid-May. They lingered there for weeks \u2014 where a natural parasite builds up \u2014 instead of heading to sea.<\/li>\n      <li><b>2026 was not a low-flow year.<\/b> The river ran well above the drought of record through the spring.<\/li>\n\n      <li>The extra water being demanded is <b>warm lake water<\/b>. It feeds the parasite; it does not cool the river.<\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <p style=\"font-family:'Fraunces',Georgia,serif;font-size:clamp(16px,2vw,20px);color:var(--teal-deep);font-weight:600;margin:22px 2px 12px;line-height:1.35;\">Three different fish \u2014 and the one that died isn\u2019t the one the rules protect.<\/p>\n  <div class=\"kid-fishid\">\n    <div style=\"border-top-color:var(--teal)\">\n      <p class=\"nm\" style=\"color:var(--teal-deep)\">Coho salmon<\/p>\n      <p class=\"sci\"><i>Oncorhynchus kisutch<\/i><\/p>\n      <span class=\"chip\" style=\"background:rgba(31,92,115,.12);color:var(--teal-deep)\">ESA-listed \u00b7 threatened<\/span>\n      <p class=\"desc\">The species the spring flow rules exist to protect. Coho live in cool tributaries and stayed essentially absent from the warm summer mainstem all season.<\/p>\n      <p class=\"out\" style=\"color:var(--teal-deep)\">Not part of this die-off.<\/p>\n    <\/div>\n    <div style=\"border-top-color:#6b9a2e\">\n      <p class=\"nm\" style=\"color:#4f7a1c\">Wild Chinook<\/p>\n      <p class=\"sci\"><i>Oncorhynchus tshawytscha<\/i> \u00b7 natural-origin<\/p>\n      <span class=\"chip\" style=\"background:rgba(99,153,34,.18);color:#4f7a1c\">Not ESA-listed<\/span>\n      <p class=\"desc\">About 580,000 counted this season; an estimated 80% had left the river by early April, while the water was still cold.<\/p>\n      <p class=\"out\" style=\"color:#4f7a1c\">The wild run largely escaped.<\/p>\n    <\/div>\n    <div style=\"border-top-color:#b0461f\">\n      <p class=\"nm\" style=\"color:#8a3618\">Hatchery Chinook<\/p>\n      <p class=\"sci\"><i>Oncorhynchus tshawytscha<\/i> \u00b7 Fall Creek Hatchery<\/p>\n      <span class=\"chip\" style=\"background:rgba(176,70,31,.12);color:#8a3618\">Not ESA-listed<\/span>\n      <p class=\"desc\">675,000 released May\u00a014, far upstream into already-warm water; they lingered for weeks where the parasite concentrates.<\/p>\n      <p class=\"out\" style=\"color:#8a3618\">~2,170 documented dead in the traps \u2014 the fish in the news (a floor).<\/p>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"kid-keyfacts\">\n    <p class=\"kid-kf-title\">Three facts worth keeping in view<\/p>\n    <ul>\n      <li><b>The fish the rules protect weren\u2019t there.<\/b> The spring flow rules exist under the Endangered Species Act to protect <b>threatened coho salmon<\/b>. Coho stayed essentially absent from the mainstem traps all season \u2014 they live in cool tributaries, not the warm summer mainstem where this die-off happened.<\/li>\n      <li><b>This tracks hatchery decisions, not flow.<\/b> The 2026 mortality appears tied directly to <i>where and when<\/i> hatchery fish were put into the river: 675,000 smolts (young Chinook ready to migrate to sea) released May\u00a014, far upstream, into already-warm water.<\/li>\n      <li><b>The whales are downstream of all of it.<\/b> Of the roughly 75 endangered Southern Resident killer whales, it is <b>L pod \u2014 about 34<\/b> \u2014 whose ocean range carries it past the Klamath in winter; J and K pods take little to none of the basin\u2019s Chinook. Three to four years from now, that pod will have numerous fish to draw on, including the ones that survive from this year\u2019s full outmigration (the season\u2019s young fish heading to sea) \u2014 wild <i>and<\/i> hatchery alike \u2014 which points to the survival of every juvenile, not the volume of water sent past the headgate.<\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"kid-update\">\n    <h3>A fuller account of the die-off<\/h3>\n\n    <div class=\"kid-myth\">\n      <p class=\"kid-hypo-eyebrow\">On the claim that low flows caused this<\/p>\n      <p class=\"claim\">Some recent coverage says low river flows caused the die-off, and that releasing more water would have prevented it.<\/p>\n      <p style=\"font-size:clamp(15px,1.6vw,16.5px);line-height:1.6;margin:0 0 14px;color:#6b6256;\">We don\u2019t dispute this is a warm-water-and-parasite event; in a dry, low-snowpack year, flows and warm water tend to arrive together naturally. What matters is the human decision to release additional warm water onto existing, known conditions.<\/p>\n      <p class=\"fact\"><b>The operative variable is temperature \u2014 and 2026 was not a low-flow year.<\/b> A low-snowpack winter warms the river regardless of how much water is released, and it is the warmth and parasite dose that harm the fish, not the volume by itself. By the measured record (the chart further down), 2026\u2019s Keno releases ran well above the drought of record \u2014 several times that benchmark\u2019s flow through the spring \u2014 so the river was not running low when these fish died.<\/p>\n      <p class=\"fact\"><b>The water being demanded is warm.<\/b> The additional flow being demanded \u2014 including under the 2024 Biological Assessment and Opinion \u2014 would come from Upper Klamath Lake, and by late spring that lake water is warm. Federal monitoring identifies <b>warm water<\/b> as the dominant driver of this parasite. Sending more lake water downstream adds warm water \u2014 it does not cool the river or remove the parasite. The demanded remedy delivers more of the very condition that feeds the disease.<\/p>\n      <p class=\"fact\"><b>The timing and the fish don\u2019t fit.<\/b> These were late-released hatchery fish that stayed in the warm upper river; the wild run had already gone downstream in cold water. A larger June release of warm stored water would arrive after the wild fish have passed, would not move hatchery fish that aren\u2019t migrating, and cannot cool a river warmed by the summer sun.<\/p>\n      <p class=\"fact\"><b>What would actually help is a shorter, cooler trip.<\/b> Releasing hatchery fish lower in the river and earlier \u2014 closer to the cool ocean, before the water heats up \u2014 shortens the warm-water gauntlet. That is a hatchery decision, not a question of how much water is sent past the farms.<\/p>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <div class=\"kid-stat\">\n      <div><span class=\"num\">~2,170<\/span><span class=\"lab\">young Chinook documented dead or dying in the Iron\u00a0Gate & I-5 traps, June\u00a02\u20135 \u2014 a floor, since traps catch only part of the run<\/span><\/div>\n      <div><span class=\"num\">~0.3%<\/span><span class=\"lab\">of the 675,000 hatchery smolts released May\u00a014, documented dead in those traps \u2014 though a majority of the fish actually caught were dead (~60%, up to ~80% at some sites)<\/span><\/div>\n      <div><span class=\"num\">~0%<\/span><span class=\"lab\">of the dead were wild fish \u2014 the ~580,000 wild run had already moved downstream in cold water<\/span><\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <p>Here is the same story in more detail, with the monitoring data behind it. (The two timelines further down now run through June\u00a021.)<\/p>\n\n    <p><b>What the traps found.<\/b> In the week of June\u00a02\u20135, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service reported that about <b>60% of the juvenile Chinook caught at the Iron Gate and I-5 traps were dead or dying<\/b> (60% of unmarked fish, 68% of ad-clipped), with more dead fish along the banks nearby; some upper-river sites reported up to ~80%. Of roughly <b>3,500 Chinook<\/b> caught at those two traps, an estimated <b>~2,170 were dead or dying<\/b>. By their fin-clips, <b>nearly all were hatchery fish<\/b> \u2014 part of the <b>675,000 smolts the Fall Creek Hatchery released on May\u00a014<\/b>. Most were found between Fall Creek and the Shasta River. That ~2,170 is a documented <i>floor<\/i>, not a river-wide total: the traps sample only a fraction of the fish moving past.<\/p>\n\n    <p>These were not the wild fish in the timelines below. That run had largely passed weeks earlier, in cold water. These were Fall Creek Hatchery fish, released in mid-May into a mainstem that was already warm.<\/p>\n\n    <p class=\"kid-callout\">An infection rate is not a death rate.<\/p>\n    <p>A fish that tests positive for <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i> is infected \u2014 not necessarily dead. The parasite can be detected within about a week of exposure, but the mature spores that actually kill a Chinook take two to three weeks to develop. A high detection number measures exposure, not a body count.<\/p>\n\n    <p><b>And exposed fish can recover.<\/b> <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i> is a freshwater parasite; it cannot complete its life cycle in the sea. Chinook that reach cooler water downstream and make it to the ocean can shed the infection and recover \u2014 as the fish pathologist monitoring this event reiterated at the June\u00a011 operations meeting. What decides the outcome is not infection alone; it is <b>temperature, and how far the fish must travel through warm water.<\/b><\/p>\n\n    <p>That fits what the biologists examining this event described: the released hatchery fish did not head downstream promptly. They lingered for weeks near the release reach \u2014 exactly where the parasite is most concentrated \u2014 and took a heavy dose. Had they moved to cooler water sooner, they would have met far less parasite and reached the ocean, where the infection cannot survive (Oregon State University).<\/p>\n\n    <div class=\"kid-agency\">\n      <p class=\"h\">What CDFW reported<\/p>\n      <ul>\n        <li>CDFW timed the May\u00a014 release for a window when <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i> in the river had eased, and ahead of forecast storms expected to improve water quality and speed the smolts to the ocean. <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i> then climbed, and some of the released fish were later found dead in the traps near the former Iron Gate Dam.<\/li>\n        <li>Lab work confirmed two parasites in the dead fish: <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i> and <i>Parvicapsula\u00a0minibicornis<\/i>.<\/li>\n        <li>Most wild juveniles had already migrated out ahead of the rising parasite levels, and CDFW says it remains confident that a share of the released hatchery fish escaped the parasites and reached the sea \u2014 where <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i> does not affect the fish or ocean fishing.<\/li>\n        <li>Some pathogen loss is a normal part of the Chinook life cycle: a pair of Chinook produce roughly 4,000 offspring, and even under ideal conditions more than 99% die to disease or predation before reaching adulthood.<\/li>\n        <li>CDFW also notes that early-spring 2026 <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i> ran lower than in pre\u2013dam-removal drought years, and that <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i> mortalities in spring 2024 and 2025 were significantly lower \u2014 which it calls encouraging signs.<\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <p><b>Two parts of that account are worth setting against the record.<\/b> First, the expectation that forecast storms would <i>speed the smolts to the ocean<\/i> is not what the outmigration science finds: migration rate is largely unaffected by flow, and a juvenile\u2019s survival tracks the <i>distance<\/i> it must travel, not how fast the water moves it (Muir et\u00a0al. 2001; Smith et\u00a0al. 2002; Williams et\u00a0al. 2005, reviewed in Lestelle 2007 \u2014 quoted below). Neither the forecast storms nor a larger June release would have carried these fish to sea fast enough to change the outcome. Second, while 2026\u2019s spore densities ran below the 2021 drought-year peak, the parasite did not ease in the corridor these fish had to cross \u2014 Beaver Creek read <b>39\u00a0spores\/L on May\u00a011<\/b>, three days before the release. By <b>June\u00a01<\/b>, Oregon State University\u2019s water-column monitoring had <b>four of six mainstem index sites above 10 spores per liter<\/b> \u2014 the density that program ties to a <b>40% mortality threshold in juvenile Chinook<\/b> (KSH\u00a022, KBC\u00a017, KMN\u00a014, KSV\u00a013 spores\/L; only the two lowest sites fell below the line). That was the parasite level the released fish were moving through in the days just before the <b>June\u00a02\u20135<\/b> die-off \u2014 not an eased river.<\/p>\n\n    <p>That points to the part of this that is actually within human control: <b>distance.<\/b> Mortality concentrates where juveniles spend the most time in warm, infectious water \u2014 and Fall Creek Hatchery sits about <b>200 river miles from the Pacific<\/b> \u2014 roughly 7\u00a0miles <i>above<\/i> the former Iron Gate Dam site \u2014 so its fish must run that entire corridor. This is not our characterization. In 2021, the California Department of Fish and Wildlife trucked about <b>1.1 million hatchery juveniles<\/b> toward the coast rather than releasing them upstream. In the agency\u2019s own words, the science indicated the fish would not survive the journey \u2014 <b>up to ~75% projected mortality<\/b> over the ~192 river miles.<\/p>\n\n    <p>This concern is not new. CDFW\u2019s own review of Iron Gate Hatchery records a long-standing recommendation to release <b>fewer smolts and more fall yearlings<\/b> \u2014 specifically to avoid the hatchery\u2013wild interactions and mortality that occur when juveniles are in the mainstem during the <b>low-flow, poor-water-quality conditions of late spring and summer<\/b> (Joint Hatchery Review Committee 2001, in California Department of Fish and Game, Chesney 2007). The 2026 fish met that window less by their May\u00a014 release date than by lingering in the warm upper reach instead of moving downstream.<\/p>\n\n    <p>The research is blunt on this point:<\/p>\n    <blockquote class=\"kid-quote\">\u201cMigration rate is unaffected by flow; survival appears to be largely a function of migration distance and not travel rate.\u201d<span>Muir et al. 2001; Smith et al. 2002; Williams et al. 2005 (reviewed in Lestelle 2007)<\/span><\/blockquote>\n    <p>In other words, more flow does not move juveniles to the sea fast enough to change the outcome \u2014 the distance itself is the risk, and a longer trip means more predator encounters along the way. That makes one post-dam-removal decision hard to square with the science: the Klamath River Renewal Corporation moved hatchery production <i>farther upstream<\/i>, lengthening the very corridor that drives mortality. And the new Fall Creek Hatchery is built overwhelmingly for Chinook \u2014 its coho production goal is just <b>75,000 fish, about 2.3%<\/b> of the planned <b>3,325,000-fish<\/b> annual release (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Draft EIS FERC\/EIS-0313D, Feb.\u00a02022). Releasing millions of hatchery Chinook into the upper river raises a fair question about added competition for the very coho the spring flows are meant to protect.<\/p>\n\n    <p>The June\u00a012 disease signs map onto that distance directly \u2014 high through the warm upper and middle river, and gone by the site nearest the ocean:<\/p>\n\n    <div class=\"chart-card\">\n      <p class=\"kid-gradtitle\">Sick upstream, clean near the sea<\/p>\n      <p class=\"kid-gradsub\">Juvenile Chinook with visible disease signs (pale-or-worse gills), by river mile \u00b7 week of June\u00a09\u201312, 2026<\/p>\n      <svg viewBox=\"0 0 760 416\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Share of juvenile Chinook with visible disease signs plotted against river miles from the Pacific: Iron Gate 193 miles 44.9 percent, I-5 182 miles 48.9 percent, Kinsman 148 miles 49.1 percent, Weitchpec 40 miles 0 percent. Fish originate at Fall Creek Hatchery about 200 miles from the sea, roughly 7 miles above the former Iron Gate Dam.\">\n        <g font-family=\"'Spline Sans',system-ui,sans-serif\" font-size=\"10.5\" fill=\"#a8a08c\" text-anchor=\"middle\">\n          <line x1=\"90.1\" y1=\"64\" x2=\"90.1\" y2=\"328\" stroke=\"rgba(46,42,34,0.06)\"\/>\n          <line x1=\"250.6\" y1=\"64\" x2=\"250.6\" y2=\"328\" stroke=\"rgba(46,42,34,0.06)\"\/>\n          <line x1=\"411.0\" y1=\"64\" x2=\"411.0\" y2=\"328\" stroke=\"rgba(46,42,34,0.06)\"\/>\n          <line x1=\"571.5\" y1=\"64\" x2=\"571.5\" y2=\"328\" stroke=\"rgba(46,42,34,0.06)\"\/>\n          <line x1=\"732.0\" y1=\"64\" x2=\"732.0\" y2=\"328\" stroke=\"rgba(46,42,34,0.06)\"\/>\n          <text x=\"90.1\" y=\"56\">200 mi<\/text>\n          <text x=\"250.6\" y=\"56\">150<\/text>\n          <text x=\"411.0\" y=\"56\">100<\/text>\n          <text x=\"571.5\" y=\"56\">50<\/text>\n          <text x=\"734\" y=\"56\" text-anchor=\"end\">0 mi \u00b7 sea<\/text>\n        <\/g>\n        <g font-family=\"'Spline Sans',system-ui,sans-serif\" font-size=\"11\" fill=\"#8A8270\">\n          <line x1=\"58\" y1=\"328\" x2=\"732\" y2=\"328\" stroke=\"rgba(46,42,34,0.22)\" stroke-width=\"1.5\"\/>\n          <line x1=\"58\" y1=\"280\" x2=\"732\" y2=\"280\" stroke=\"rgba(46,42,34,0.08)\"\/>\n          <line x1=\"58\" y1=\"232\" x2=\"732\" y2=\"232\" stroke=\"rgba(46,42,34,0.08)\"\/>\n          <line x1=\"58\" y1=\"184\" x2=\"732\" y2=\"184\" stroke=\"rgba(46,42,34,0.08)\"\/>\n          <line x1=\"58\" y1=\"136\" x2=\"732\" y2=\"136\" stroke=\"rgba(46,42,34,0.08)\"\/>\n          <line x1=\"58\" y1=\"88\"  x2=\"732\" y2=\"88\"  stroke=\"rgba(46,42,34,0.08)\"\/>\n          <text x=\"50\" y=\"332\" text-anchor=\"end\">0<\/text>\n          <text x=\"50\" y=\"284\" text-anchor=\"end\">10<\/text>\n          <text x=\"50\" y=\"236\" text-anchor=\"end\">20<\/text>\n          <text x=\"50\" y=\"188\" text-anchor=\"end\">30<\/text>\n          <text x=\"50\" y=\"140\" text-anchor=\"end\">40<\/text>\n          <text x=\"50\" y=\"92\"  text-anchor=\"end\">50<\/text>\n          <text x=\"18\" y=\"196\" text-anchor=\"middle\" transform=\"rotate(-90 18 196)\" fill=\"#5C5648\" font-size=\"12\">% of fish with disease signs<\/text>\n        <\/g>\n        <defs>\n          <linearGradient id=\"kidRiver\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"0\">\n            <stop offset=\"0\" stop-color=\"#c2632a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" stop-color=\"#cBA24a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" stop-color=\"#2f8aa0\"\/>\n          <\/linearGradient>\n        <\/defs>\n        <rect x=\"58\" y=\"330\" width=\"674\" height=\"6\" rx=\"3\" fill=\"url(#kidRiver)\" opacity=\"0.9\"\/>\n        <!-- Fall Creek Hatchery release point (~200 mi, ~7 mi ABOVE former Iron Gate Dam; x=90.1) -->\n        <path d=\"M90.1 332 L90.1 346 L350 346 L350 168\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"rgba(184,132,31,0.6)\" stroke-width=\"1\" stroke-dasharray=\"3,3\"\/>\n        <circle cx=\"90.1\" cy=\"330\" r=\"5\" fill=\"#B8841F\" stroke=\"#FBF7EC\" stroke-width=\"1.2\"\/>\n        <text x=\"358\" y=\"158\" font-family=\"'Spline Sans',system-ui,sans-serif\" font-size=\"12.5\" font-weight=\"600\" fill=\"#9a6c12\">Fall Creek Hatchery \u2014 release point<\/text>\n        <text x=\"358\" y=\"176\" font-family=\"'Spline Sans',system-ui,sans-serif\" font-size=\"11.5\" fill=\"#8a6a1c\">675,000 smolts, May\u00a014 \u00b7 ~7 mi above the old Iron Gate Dam<\/text>\n        <!-- lollipops -->\n        <line x1=\"112.6\" y1=\"328\" x2=\"112.6\" y2=\"112.5\" stroke=\"#c0502a\" stroke-width=\"2.5\"\/>\n        <circle cx=\"112.6\" cy=\"112.5\" r=\"7\" fill=\"#c0502a\"\/>\n        <line x1=\"147.9\" y1=\"328\" x2=\"147.9\" y2=\"93.3\" stroke=\"#c0502a\" stroke-width=\"2.5\"\/>\n        <circle cx=\"147.9\" cy=\"93.3\" r=\"7\" fill=\"#c0502a\"\/>\n        <line x1=\"257.0\" y1=\"328\" x2=\"257.0\" y2=\"92.3\" stroke=\"#c0502a\" stroke-width=\"2.5\"\/>\n        <circle cx=\"257.0\" cy=\"92.3\" r=\"7\" fill=\"#c0502a\"\/>\n        <circle cx=\"603.6\" cy=\"328\" r=\"7.5\" fill=\"#1F5C73\"\/>\n        <g font-family=\"'Fraunces',Georgia,serif\" font-weight=\"600\" font-size=\"17\" text-anchor=\"middle\">\n          <text x=\"112.6\" y=\"100\" fill=\"#a8431f\">44.9%<\/text>\n          <text x=\"147.9\" y=\"81\"  fill=\"#a8431f\">48.9%<\/text>\n          <text x=\"257.0\" y=\"80\"  fill=\"#a8431f\">49.1%<\/text>\n          <text x=\"603.6\" y=\"312\" fill=\"#1F5C73\">0%<\/text>\n        <\/g>\n        <text x=\"603.6\" y=\"298\" text-anchor=\"middle\" font-family=\"'Spline Sans',system-ui,sans-serif\" font-size=\"11\" fill=\"#1F5C73\">0 of 70 fish<\/text>\n        <!-- site labels below baseline (IG\/I-5 offset with leaders, they are only 11 mi apart) -->\n        <line x1=\"112.6\" y1=\"331\" x2=\"96\" y2=\"345\" stroke=\"#cfc6b2\" stroke-width=\"1\"\/>\n        <line x1=\"147.9\" y1=\"331\" x2=\"172\" y2=\"345\" stroke=\"#cfc6b2\" stroke-width=\"1\"\/>\n        <g font-family=\"'Spline Sans',system-ui,sans-serif\" text-anchor=\"middle\">\n          <g fill=\"#2E2A22\" font-size=\"13\" font-weight=\"600\">\n            <text x=\"96\" y=\"357\">Iron Gate<\/text>\n            <text x=\"172\" y=\"357\">I-5<\/text>\n            <text x=\"257\" y=\"357\">Kinsman<\/text>\n            <text x=\"603.6\" y=\"357\">Weitchpec<\/text>\n          <\/g>\n          <g fill=\"#8A8270\" font-size=\"11\">\n            <text x=\"96\" y=\"371\">193 mi<\/text>\n            <text x=\"172\" y=\"371\">182 mi<\/text>\n            <text x=\"257\" y=\"371\">148 mi<\/text>\n            <text x=\"603.6\" y=\"371\">40 mi<\/text>\n          <\/g>\n        <\/g>\n        <!-- axis caption + direction -->\n        <text x=\"395\" y=\"392\" text-anchor=\"middle\" font-family=\"'Spline Sans',system-ui,sans-serif\" font-size=\"12\" fill=\"#5C5648\">river miles from the Pacific<\/text>\n        <g font-family=\"'Spline Sans',system-ui,sans-serif\" font-size=\"11\" fill=\"#8A8270\">\n          <line x1=\"120\" y1=\"406\" x2=\"700\" y2=\"406\" stroke=\"#cfc6b2\" stroke-width=\"1.5\"\/>\n          <path d=\"M700 406 l-9 -4.5 l0 9 z\" fill=\"#a8a08c\"\/>\n          <text x=\"120\" y=\"403\">upper river (warm)<\/text>\n          <text x=\"700\" y=\"403\" text-anchor=\"end\" fill=\"#1F5C73\">direction of migration \u2192 toward the ocean<\/text>\n        <\/g>\n      <\/svg>\n      <div class=\"methods\">\n        <span><b>Source<\/b> \u2014 USFWS Arcata Fish & Wildlife Office Outmigrant Update, June\u00a012, 2026 (Table\u00a04), plotted against river miles from the Pacific. Disease-sign sampling is conducted at the four mainstem trap sites shown; the fish originate at the Fall Creek Hatchery, about 7\u00a0miles <i>above<\/i> the former Iron Gate Dam site (~200 river miles from the sea), which released 675,000 Chinook smolts on May\u00a014 (CDFW). Whether the clean lower-river fish shed the infection or the sickest did not survive that far, the burden falls on the long upper-river run. Visible signs are an index, not a mortality count. Provisional.<\/span>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <p>And the listed species? <b>Coho remained essentially absent from the mainstem traps<\/b> through this entire window \u2014 as they have all season. The fish in the warm-water tail were Chinook, which are not listed. The threatened coho that the spring flows are legally meant to protect are a tributary fish, not present in the warm summer mainstem where this disease plays out.<\/p>\n\n    <p>None of this means the loss was nothing. It means the loss fell on late-released hatchery fish, in a warm reach, far from the sea \u2014 and that the lever most directly tied to it is <b>where and when those fish are put in the river<\/b>, not how much stored Project water is sent past the headgate in June.<\/p>\n\n    <p>None of this rests on KID\u2019s reading of the data. The monitoring behind it runs through the <b>Klamath Fish Health Assessment Team (KFHAT)<\/b> \u2014 the basin\u2019s joint fish-health body, whose members include the Yurok and Karuk Tribes, NOAA Fisheries, CDFW, USFWS, and the Bureau of Reclamation. KFHAT\u2019s in-season 2026 group reports are the shared, multi-party record of this event, and its public readiness map places the flag for elevated juvenile-Chinook mortality in the <b>upper reach<\/b> (roughly Fall Creek to the Scott River) while rating most of the Klamath\u2013Trinity basin favorable \u2014 with the Scott, Shasta, and Salmon tributaries at a watch level for warm temperatures and low flows. That is the same localized pattern the river-mile chart above shows (Klamath Fish Health Assessment Team, 2026 in-season group reports and readiness map; Klamath Basin Monitoring Program).<\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"kid-hypo\">\n    <p class=\"kid-hypo-eyebrow\">An open question for a post-dam river<\/p>\n    <blockquote class=\"kid-bigq\">If a \u201cflushing flow\u201d is warm water from a shallow lake rather than cold water from snowmelt, does the thermal acceleration of the parasite cancel out the physical scouring of its host?<\/blockquote>\n    <p>With the dams gone, the river\u2019s channel dynamics are new. The 2026 die-off suggests an old rule of thumb \u2014 that \u201cmore water\u201d is automatically better for fish \u2014 deserves a careful, data-driven look rather than assumption. The alternate hypothesis rests on basic thermodynamics and local hydrology:<\/p>\n    <ol class=\"kid-hypo-list\">\n      <li><b>Upper Klamath Lake is a heat trap.<\/b> It is a very large, very shallow basin. In a low-snow year with strong spring sun, it warms quickly. Releasing that water does not mimic a cold snowmelt pulse \u2014 it delivers warm, nutrient-rich water into the mainstem.<\/li>\n      <li><b>Cold springs are the river\u2019s natural air-conditioning.<\/b> The reach below Keno and into the canyon is fed by cold-water spring complexes that hold a chilled baseline. Documented Klamath thermal refuges have been shown to reduce juveniles\u2019 exposure to <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i> \u2014 cool-water patches at tributary confluences carry lower parasite concentrations and ease disease progression (Chiaramonte et\u00a0al. 2016, <i>Trans. Am. Fish. Soc.<\/i> 145:810\u2013820).<\/li>\n      <li><b>The two can work against each other.<\/b> Pushing warm lake water downriver to hit a flow target during a drought could overwhelm that localized spring cooling. The added warmth can speed the parasite\u2019s development, while higher, faster flow can mix out the cold-water pockets juveniles use as refuge \u2014 the opposite of the intended effect.<\/li>\n    <\/ol>\n    <p>Why temperature is the hinge: in Klamath salmonids, <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i>-induced mortality rises steeply as the water warms. So if a given flow target can be met either with warm lake water (pushing the mainstem warmer) or by leaning on the cooler, spring-fed reaches, the temperature difference may matter more to survival than the added volume. That is a <b>testable question, not a settled answer<\/b> \u2014 and it is the kind of question a post-dam Klamath now demands.<\/p>\n    <p class=\"src\">On the temperature\u2013disease relationship: Ray,\u00a0R.A., Holt,\u00a0R.A. & Bartholomew,\u00a0J.L. (2012), <i>Relationship between temperature and Ceratomyxa shasta\u2013induced mortality in Klamath River salmonids<\/i>, Journal of Parasitology 98(3):520\u2013526.<\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <p class=\"lead\">Each spring, we hear that large river releases are needed to protect juvenile fish\n  from disease. This year's monitoring tells a more specific story. The chart below puts three things\n  on one timeline: when the wild young Chinook leave the river, how warm the water gets, and how the\n  <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i> infection rate climbs.<\/p>\n\n  <div class=\"chart-card\">\n    <div class=\"chartbox\"><canvas id=\"kidSalmonChart\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Wild Chinook outmigration peaks in February in cold water and is largely complete before the C. shasta infection rate and mainstem temperature climb in late April and May.\"><\/canvas><\/div>\n    <p class=\"kid-chartcaption\"><b>What this shows:<\/b> the wild young Chinook had largely left the river \u2014 the tall early peak \u2014 before the water warmed and the <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i> infection rate climbed in late April and May. The fish caught in that warm-water window were mostly the late-released hatchery fish, not the wild run. The gold line marks when those hatchery fish were released \u2014 May\u00a014, 675,000 Chinook from the Fall\u00a0Creek Hatchery. By the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fws.gov\/media\/klamath-river-juvenile-salmonid-outmigrant-monitoring-update-june-5-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">June\u00a05 trapping update<\/a>, the natural-origin (wild) catch had fallen to its season low, and the fish still showing up at the Iron\u00a0Gate and I-5 traps were mostly hatchery releases. The red diamonds track only distended bellies; a second warm-water parasite hit harder still \u2014 at the Iron\u00a0Gate trap, most young fish sampled in mid-May had pale or diseased gills.<\/p>\n    <div class=\"methods\">\n      <span><b>Temperature<\/b> \u2014 the Karuk Tribe\u2019s measured record at Iron Gate (Klamath River below Iron Gate), daily mean\/min\/max through June\u00a021, used with the Tribe\u2019s permission (provisional).<\/span>\n      <span><b>Coverage<\/b> \u2014 temperature runs through June\u00a021; the Chinook catch and the distended-belly visual sign run through June\u00a04 (latest USFWS trapping update, the week of June\u00a02\u20135). The qPCR <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i> prevalence markers run through May\u00a07; the newest qPCR infection rate is pending the California\u2013Nevada Fish Health Center\u2019s next update.<\/span>\n      <span><b>Chinook<\/b> \u2014 natural-origin (wild) weekly catch, all reporting traps, digitized and scaled to published season totals.<\/span>\n      <span><b><i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i><\/b> \u2014 infection rate in weekly corridor samples; \u201cest. infected\u201d couples that rate to the catch. Markers show prevalence (the share of fish infected), not mortality.<\/span>\n      <span><b>Pale gills<\/b> \u2014 a separate sign of anemia linked to <i>Parvicapsula\u00a0minibicornis<\/i>, a second temperature-driven parasite (not plotted). At the Iron\u00a0Gate trap the share of sampled fish with pale-or-worse gills ran 70.8% (May\u00a05\u20138) and 50.5% (May\u00a012\u201315), easing to 8\u201323% through early June (USFWS Table\u00a04).<\/span>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <h3>What the data shows<\/h3>\n\n  <p><i>Ceratonova shasta<\/i> (<i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i>) is real, and we take it seriously. It is also\n  seasonal \u2014 it tracks water temperature. This year the first detection came on <b>April\u00a02<\/b>,\n  and the infection rate in the weekly samples then climbed steeply, reaching roughly <b>90\u2013100%\n  by late April<\/b> as the river warmed.<\/p>\n\n  <p>By then, most of the wild run was already gone. Across all the reporting juvenile traps \u2014\n  Shasta, Scott, Bogus, Fall, Shovel, Jenny, and the ODFW Spencer and Klamath stations \u2014 about\n  <b>580,000 natural-origin young Chinook<\/b> were counted this season, and an estimated <b>80% had\n  emigrated before that first April\u00a02 detection<\/b>, while the water was still cold.<\/p>\n\n  <p>In plain terms: the bulk of the wild outmigration moved through cold water, ahead of the\n  disease-and-temperature spike. We do not pretend the cost was zero \u2014 coupling the catch to the\n  measured infection rate puts an estimated <b>13% of the run (about 75,000 fish)<\/b> as infected,\n  mostly in the warm-water tail. But the largest spring flow demands arrive <i>after<\/i> most of the\n  fish they are meant to protect have already passed the upper river.<\/p>\n\n  <h3>The water-column monitoring, week by week<\/h3>\n\n  <p>The parasite dose itself \u2014 the density of <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i> spores in the river water \u2014 is tracked separately by Oregon State University at six mainstem index sites, and it is the clearest measure of what an outmigrating fish actually swims through. The full 2026 record tells the story the snapshots cannot: the dose stayed <b>concentrated in the upper river<\/b> \u2014 the reach nearest where the hatchery fish were released \u2014 and it was <b>already above the mortality threshold there when those fish went in on May\u00a014<\/b>, not eased.<\/p>\n\n  <div class=\"chart-card\">\n    <div class=\"chartbox\"><canvas id=\"kidSporeChart\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"C. shasta water-column spore density at six mainstem index sites across the 2026 season, late March through June 15, as a weekly time series. The three uppermost sites stayed at or above the 10 spores per liter mortality threshold through the May 14 hatchery release and the June die-off, with the Shasta-confluence site peaking at 66 spores per liter on June 8, while the lower-river sites stayed low.\"><\/canvas><\/div>\n    <p class=\"kid-chartcaption\"><b>What this shows:<\/b> water-column <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i> spore density at all six index sites across the 2026 season \u2014 the parasite dose an outmigrating fish actually swims through, week by week. Read it against the hatchery timeline: the fish were released on <b>May\u00a014<\/b>, by which point the upper corridor had climbed back above the <b>10\u00a0spores\/L<\/b> line the program ties to a <b>~40% mortality threshold in juvenile Chinook<\/b> (Beaver Creek, <b>KBC<\/b>, measured <b>39\u00a0sp\/L on May\u00a011<\/b>, three days before release). The upper sites \u2014 the reach the released fish had to cross \u2014 stayed at or above that line through the outmigration and the <b>June\u00a02\u20135 die-off<\/b>, with the Shasta-confluence site (<b>KSH<\/b>) reaching the year\u2019s highs of <b>56<\/b> (May\u00a026) and <b>66\u00a0sp\/L<\/b> (June\u00a08), even as the lower river (KOR, KTC) stayed low. The dose was heaviest exactly where and when the released fish were present.<\/p>\n    <div class=\"methods\">\n      <span><b>Source<\/b> \u2014 Oregon State University, Department of Microbiology (Bartholomew Laboratory), Klamath <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i> water-column spore monitoring, weekly 2026 updates (six mainstem index sites, late March through June\u00a015), read from the program\u2019s posted per-site spore densities. Most weeks are 24-hour composite (ISCO) samples; a few are manual grab samples, which are more variable (e.g., the low KBC reading on May\u00a026).<\/span>\n      <span><b>What this is<\/b> \u2014 spore density is the parasite <i>dose<\/i> in the water, which is different from the share of <i>fish<\/i> infected shown in the timeline above. The 10\u00a0spores\/L value is the program\u2019s own reference line.<\/span>\n      <span><b>Genotype<\/b> \u2014 the program also types the parasite. The coho-associated form (Type\u00a0II, which it calls the \u201ccoho\u201d genotype) stayed at <b>trace levels (<1\u00a0spore\/L) or undetected at every site, every week, all season<\/b> \u2014 against a total load that reached 66\u00a0spores\/L. The heavy dose in the corridor was the non-coho, Chinook-affecting type throughout.<\/span>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <h3>Regulated for one fish \u2014 while the water follows another<\/h3>\n\n  <p>Here is the part worth sitting with. The flows that limit water to Klamath Project farms are\n  required under the federal <b>Endangered Species Act<\/b> to protect <b>coho salmon<\/b>, which are\n  listed as threatened. Coho are the listed species \u2014 they are the legal reason the river is\n  given priority over the headgate in a dry year like 2026, when stored Upper Klamath Lake water is\n  released to hold river flows <i>above<\/i> what the season would naturally provide.<\/p>\n\n  <p>But the fish in this chart are <b>Chinook<\/b> \u2014 and Klamath Chinook are <b>not listed under\n  the federal Endangered Species Act<\/b>, fall run or spring run. They are the fish that fill the\n  juvenile trap counts, and they are the fish at the center of the disease monitoring used to argue for\n  higher spring flows.<\/p>\n\n  <p>There is one more link in that chain. Klamath Chinook still enter the federal picture \u2014 not\n  on their own, but as food. Reclamation's own 2024 Biological Assessment defines an action area that\n  reaches <b>out into the Pacific Ocean<\/b>, where, in its words, the <b>Southern Resident Killer\n  Whale<\/b> \u2014 an endangered population of orcas \u2014 \u201cfeed on concentrations of adult\n  Chinook Salmon.\u201d Chinook are the orca's primary prey. So the unlisted Klamath Chinook are folded\n  into the federal consultation indirectly: as ocean prey for a listed animal that lives hundreds of\n  miles away. Whether that distant link should drive how a dry-year river is rationed at the headgate is\n  a fair thing to put on the table.<\/p>\n\n  <p>So the record raises a fair question: Klamath farmers are being curtailed for a <i>listed<\/i>\n  species (coho), while the disease case used to argue for higher spring flows is built largely around an\n  <i>unlisted<\/i> one (Chinook). And when the bulk of those Chinook have already passed in cold water\n  \u2014 as the chart shows \u2014 it is fair to ask how the late-spring flows line up with the fish\n  they are meant to protect, and which fish those are.<\/p>\n\n  <p>There is also a gap the record never tested. Two separate questions get blurred together: what the Endangered Species Act actually requires to avoid jeopardizing coho, and how much water is demanded <i>above<\/i> that legal floor. A <b>biological opinion<\/b> \u2014 the federal review that decides whether a water plan complies with the Act \u2014 evaluated operations that were already curtailed, and found them <b>\u2018no\u00a0jeopardy.\u2019<\/b> Deliveries nearer the Project\u2019s own water rights were never put on the table to test. So the volume demanded in a dry year has never had a clean hearing against what the law strictly requires.<\/p>\n\n  <h3>A closer look: where the 2026 water came from<\/h3>\n\n  <p>This second chart uses Reclamation's own daily accounting. The blue line is the natural water\n  arriving at Upper Klamath Lake (net inflow \u2014 the natural water arriving; <span class=\"kid-corr\">the A\u00a0Canal is already accounted for in the lake\u2019s water budget, not subtracted from inflow<\/span><span class=\"kid-corrnote\">\u00a0corrected 6\/12<\/span>); the orange line\n  is the flow released downriver at Keno to meet the federal target; the gold line is the lake's surface\n  elevation. Through the winter and the cold-water outmigration \u2014 when the young Chinook were\n  actually leaving \u2014 inflow ran well ahead of the release, and the lake <b>filled more than three\n  feet<\/b>, peaking on April\u00a05. Only after that, as natural inflow fell away, did the release begin\n  to outrun it: on <b>57 of the 77 days after the April\u00a05 peak<\/b>, the prescribed Keno flow\n  exceeded what nature delivered to the lake that day, so the river was held up by drawing stored water\n  back out. In plain terms, the stored water that sustains the prescribed flow is spent mostly in\n  <b>May and June \u2014 after the fish have gone.<\/b><\/p>\n\n    <p><b>And the \u201clow flows\u201d framing does not match the record.<\/b> The two dashed lines put 2026 in historical context. The two gray lines are prior years for comparison: the dashed line is the dam-removal water year (2024), and the fainter dotted line is <b>water year 1992 \u2014 the drought of record<\/b>, from the USGS Keno gage. The 1992 line sits below 2026 in every month; 2024 runs lower through the spring and June, though it pulsed higher than 2026 for a few weeks in late winter. In 1992 the river at Keno <b>never exceeded about 670\u00a0cfs<\/b> all year, and ran at roughly <b>150\u2013200\u00a0cfs through the spring and into June<\/b> \u2014 the very months the young fish move. The 2026 releases (orange) run at or above the dam-removal year and <b>several times higher than the 1992 drought<\/b> across that same outmigration window. Whatever else is debated about how the water is managed, the measured record does not show 2026 as a low-flow year.<\/p>\n\n  <div class=\"chart-card\">\n    <div class=\"chartbox\"><canvas id=\"kidWaterChart\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Upper Klamath Lake net inflow runs well above the Keno release through winter and early spring while the lake fills; after the April 5 peak, inflow falls below the release and stored water is drawn down to sustain the river through May and June. A second, dashed Keno line shows the 2024 dam-removal water year, and a third, dotted line shows water year 1992, the drought of record, which ran far below 2026, on the same calendar for comparison.\"><\/canvas><\/div>\n    <div class=\"methods\">\n      <span><b>Net inflow & Keno release<\/b> \u2014 Reclamation daily UKL accountability, WY2026 (net inflow = storage change <i>plus<\/i> Link River and A\u00a0Canal releases, back-calculated from the lake\u2019s water budget; provisional \u2014 corrected 6\/12).<\/span>\n      <span><b>UKL elevation<\/b> \u2014 Reclamation daily surface elevation (ft); series through June\u00a021.<\/span>\n      <span><b>Keno release \u2014 2024<\/b> \u2014 the dam-removal water year (Oct\u2013Jun), overlaid on the same calendar for comparison (Reclamation ReclamationTracker, col\u00a0I).<\/span>\n      <span><b>Keno flow \u2014 1992<\/b> \u2014 the drought of record, USGS Keno gage 11509500 (approved daily discharge), Oct\u2013Jun on the same calendar; it never exceeded ~670\u00a0cfs and fell to ~150\u00a0cfs by June.<\/span>\n      <span><b>Deficit days<\/b> \u2014 days the Keno release exceeded same-day net inflow; 57 of those fell after the April\u00a05 storage peak.<\/span>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"notes\">\n    <p>A few notes, because facts cut both ways: this chart tracks <b>Chinook, not coho<\/b>, and does\n    not measure coho directly; the Chinook counts are <b>natural-origin (wild)<\/b> fish, digitized from\n    agency briefing charts and scaled to each trap's published season total; the infection figures are\n    the rate found in <b>small weekly corridor samples<\/b> (about 30 fish each, wide margins of error),\n    and the \u201cestimated infected\u201d line couples that rate to the catch \u2014 it is an\n    estimate, not a head count; temperatures are the Karuk Tribe\u2019s measured record at Iron Gate, used with the Tribe\u2019s permission. <b>All figures\n    are provisional<\/b> and subject to revision.<\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <p class=\"closing\">We support healthy fish runs. We also believe water decisions affecting hundreds\n  of farm families should rest on measured timing and real numbers. The cold-water window is when these\n  fish actually move \u2014 and that is where management should follow the science.<\/p>\n\n  <p style=\"font-size:clamp(13.5px,1.5vw,15px);color:#6b6256;line-height:1.55;margin:14px 0 0;\">For the broader policy case \u2014 that Basin recovery turns on temperature, water quality, and disease as much as water volume, and on integrated approaches that serve fish, farms, refuges, and wildlife together \u2014 the Klamath Water Users Association makes that argument in its companion release, <i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kwua.org\/beyond-water-volume-in-the-klamath-basin-realizing-solutions-for-fish-farms-and-wildlife\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" style=\"color:var(--teal);\">Beyond Water Volume in the Klamath Basin<\/a><\/i> (June\u00a02026).<\/p>\n\n  <div class=\"kid-sources\">\n    <h4>Sources<\/h4>\n    <ul>\n      <li>Ray, R.A., Holt, R.A. & Bartholomew, J.L. (2012). <i>Relationship between temperature and Ceratomyxa shasta\u2013induced mortality in Klamath River salmonids.<\/i> Journal of Parasitology 98(3):520\u2013526. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1645\/JP-GE-2737.1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">doi.org\/10.1645\/JP-GE-2737.1<\/a><\/li>\n      <li>Chiaramonte, L.V., Ray, R.A., Corum, R.A., Soto, T., Hallett, S.L. & Bartholomew, J.L. (2016). <i>Klamath River thermal refuge provides juvenile salmon reduced exposure to the parasite Ceratonova shasta.<\/i> Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 145(4):810\u2013820. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/00028487.2016.1159612\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">doi.org\/10.1080\/00028487.2016.1159612<\/a><\/li>\n      <li>Muir, W.D., Smith, S.G., Williams, J.G. & Sandford, B.P. (2001). <i>Survival of juvenile salmonids passing through bypass systems, turbines, and spillways with and without flow deflectors at Snake River dams.<\/i> North American Journal of Fisheries Management 21:135\u2013146. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nwcouncil.org\/sites\/default\/files\/Muir_et_al_2001_Juvenile_Salmonid_Survival_Bypasses_etc.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">nwcouncil.org<\/a><\/li>\n      <li>Smith, S.G., Muir, W.D., Williams, J.G. & Skalski, J.R. (2002). <i>Factors associated with travel time and survival of migrant yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead in the Lower Snake River.<\/i> North American Journal of Fisheries Management 22(2):385\u2013405. (Full text by subscription through the journal.)<\/li>\n      <li>Williams, J.G., Smith, S.G., Zabel, R.W., Muir, W.D., Scheuerell, M.D., Sandford, B.P., Marsh, D.M., McNatt, R.A. & Achord, S. (2005). <i>Effects of the Federal Columbia River Power System on salmonid populations.<\/i> NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-NWFSC-63. <a href=\"https:\/\/groups.nceas.ucsb.edu\/flow-experiments\/documents\/overviews-and-reviews\/williams%20et%20al.2005.effectstechmemo63final.pdf\/at_download\/file\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">nceas.ucsb.edu<\/a><\/li>\n      <li>Lestelle, L.C. (2007). <i>Coho Salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) Life History Patterns in the Pacific Northwest and California.<\/i> Final report prepared for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Klamath Area Office. <a href=\"https:\/\/coastcoho.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Coho-Salmon-Life-History-Patterns-in-the-Pacific-Northwest-_-California.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">coastcoho.org<\/a><\/li>\n      <li>California Department of Fish and Game. <i>Iron Gate Hatchery<\/i> review (Chesney 2007), including the Joint Hatchery Review Committee (2001) release-timing recommendation. <a href=\"https:\/\/nrm.dfg.ca.gov\/FileHandler.ashx?DocumentID=27047\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">nrm.dfg.ca.gov<\/a><\/li>\n      <li>California Department of Fish and Wildlife. <i>Understanding juvenile salmon mortality in the Klamath River<\/i> (statement, June\u00a020, 2026; via Maven\u2019s Notebook). <a href=\"https:\/\/mavensnotebook.com\/2026\/06\/20\/cdfw-understanding-juvenile-salmon-mortality-in-the-klamath-river\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">mavensnotebook.com<\/a><\/li>\n      <li>Klamath Fish Health Assessment Team (KFHAT) \u2014 2026 in-season group reports and readiness map. Klamath Basin Monitoring Program. <a href=\"https:\/\/kbmp.net\/collaboration\/kfhat\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">kbmp.net\/collaboration\/kfhat<\/a><\/li>\n      <li>Oregon State University, Department of Microbiology (Bartholomew Laboratory). <i>Klamath River Ceratonova shasta water-column spore monitoring<\/i> \u2014 weekly 2026 updates, six mainstem index sites, late March through June\u00a015 (the 10\u00a0spores\/L reference line corresponds to a 40% mortality threshold in juvenile Chinook). <a href=\"https:\/\/microbiology.oregonstate.edu\/research\/aquatic-microbiology-ecology\/monitoring-studies\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">microbiology.oregonstate.edu<\/a><\/li>\n      <li>U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 11509500, Klamath River at Keno, OR (water year 1992 daily discharge). <a href=\"https:\/\/waterdata.usgs.gov\/monitoring-location\/USGS-11509500\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">waterdata.usgs.gov<\/a><\/li>\n      <li>Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (2022). <i>Final Environmental Impact Statement, Lower Klamath Project<\/i> (FERC Project Nos. 14803-001 and 2082-063; eLibrary accession 20220826-3006, August\u00a026, 2022). <a href=\"https:\/\/elibrary.ferc.gov\/eLibrary\/filelist?accession_number=20220826-3006&optimized=false\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">elibrary.ferc.gov<\/a><\/li>\n      <li>National Marine Fisheries Service (2024). <i>Endangered Species Act Section\u00a07(a)(2) Biological Opinion for Klamath Project Operations, 2024\u20132029<\/i> (NMFS No. WCRO-2024-01599; October\u00a028, 2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usbr.gov\/mp\/kbao\/docs\/20241028-finalbiologicalopinion-nmfs-klamathproject.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">usbr.gov<\/a><\/li>\n      <li>U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Arcata Fish and Wildlife Office. <i>Klamath River Juvenile Salmonid Outmigrant Monitoring Update \u2014 June\u00a05, 2026<\/i> (weekly trap catch and the early-June fish-health figures). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fws.gov\/media\/klamath-river-juvenile-salmonid-outmigrant-monitoring-update-june-5-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">fws.gov<\/a><\/li>\n      <li>Klamath Water Users Association. <i>Beyond Water Volume in the Klamath Basin: Realizing Solutions for Fish, Farms, and Wildlife<\/i> (informational release, June\u00a023, 2026) \u2014 the Klamath Project water-users\u2019 companion policy statement on temperature, disease, and integrated Basin solutions. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kwua.org\/beyond-water-volume-in-the-klamath-basin-realizing-solutions-for-fish-farms-and-wildlife\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">kwua.org<\/a><\/li>\n      <li><b>Water temperature data:<\/b> Karuk Tribe Water Quality Program final record at Iron Gate, used with the Tribe\u2019s permission (not a public dataset).<\/li>\n      <li><b>Flow and lake-elevation data:<\/b> U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Klamath Project daily operational accounting (2024 and 2026 water years).<\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n    <p class=\"note\">Every work cited in the text is linked above, except the subscription-only Smith et\u00a0al. (2002) journal article.<\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"kid-whatsnew\">\n      <h4>What changed since the June 5 post<\/h4>\n      <ul>\n        <li><span class=\"kid-tag new\">New<\/span> The early-June mortality event is now quantified: an estimated <b>~2,170 dead or dying<\/b> of ~3,500 Chinook caught at the Iron Gate and I-5 traps June\u00a02\u20135 \u2014 nearly all hatchery fish.<\/li>\n        <li><span class=\"kid-tag new\">New<\/span> A river-mile disease-gradient chart from the upper river down to Weitchpec, with the migration-distance research (Muir\/Smith\/Williams; Lestelle 2007) and the hatchery-siting and coho-competition point (FERC 2022).<\/li>\n        <li><span class=\"kid-tag new\">New<\/span> Through June\u00a012 the mainstem catch was a late hatchery pulse (ad-clipped Chinook peaking June\u00a02\u20135), and fork lengths confirm the wild run is in its tail.<\/li>\n        <li><span class=\"kid-tag fix\">Fix<\/span> The second chart\u2019s net-inflow note is corrected: the A\u00a0Canal is <i>already accounted for<\/i> in net inflow, not subtracted from it \u2014 the figure is storage change <i>plus<\/i> the releases, not minus.<\/li>\n        <li><span class=\"kid-tag same\">Unchanged<\/span> The season-to-date figures in the original analysis (~580,000 wild Chinook, ~80% emigrated before April\u00a02, ~13% \/ ~75,000 infected) are not affected by the new week of data. The two timelines below now extend through June\u00a021.<\/li>\n        <li><span class=\"kid-tag new\">New<\/span> Both timelines updated to June\u00a021 from the WY2026 Reclamation accounting and the Karuk Final temperature record: mainstem temperature has climbed back above 24\u00b0C, and stored water now covers the prescribed flow on 57 of the 77 days since the April\u00a05 peak.<\/li>\n        <li><span class=\"kid-tag fix\">Fix<\/span> Hatchery location corrected: Fall Creek Hatchery is ~7\u00a0miles <i>above<\/i> the former Iron Gate Dam (~200 river miles from the sea); it released <b>675,000<\/b> Chinook smolts on May\u00a014 (CDFW).<\/li>\n        <li><span class=\"kid-tag new\">New<\/span> A plain-language summary and a \u201cflows\u201d explainer for non-specialists, plus the dead-fish accounting: ~2,170 documented dead (a floor), ~0.3% of the May\u00a014 hatchery release, ~0% of the wild run.<\/li>\n        <li><span class=\"kid-tag new\">New<\/span> Three up-front facts (coho absence, the hatchery timing\/location link, and the Southern Resident killer whale prey connection), and an \u201copen question\u201d section red-teaming the assumption that more flow always means less disease (anchored to Ray, Holt & Bartholomew 2012).<\/li>\n        <li><span class=\"kid-tag fix\">Fix<\/span> Data attribution clarified per the Karuk Tribe: water temperature is credited to the Tribe\u2019s measured Iron Gate record (used with permission); the flows chart uses Reclamation accounting, not USGS-via-Karuk.<\/li>\n        <li><span class=\"kid-tag new\">New<\/span> A \u201cWhat CDFW reported\u201d box: the agency\u2019s release-timing rationale, the second confirmed parasite (<i>P.\u00a0minibicornis<\/i>), the natural >99% juvenile mortality context, and CDFW\u2019s note that post\u2013dam-removal <i>C.\u00a0shasta<\/i> mortalities have run lower.<\/li>\n        <li><span class=\"kid-tag new\">New<\/span> The bottom chart now overlays the <b>2024 (dam-removal) Keno release<\/b> on the same Oct\u2013Jun calendar, for a year-over-year flow comparison (2024 ReclamationTracker, col\u00a0I).<\/li>\n        <li><span class=\"kid-tag new\">New<\/span> The bottom chart also overlays <b>water year 1992 \u2014 the drought of record<\/b> (USGS Keno gage 11509500), which ran below ~670\u00a0cfs all year and ~150\u2013200\u00a0cfs in spring\/June \u2014 well below 2026, to test the \u201clow flows\u201d characterization against the measured record.<\/li>\n        <li><span class=\"kid-tag new\">New<\/span> The \u201clow flows\u201d box now acknowledges the common ground in recent coverage \u2014 this is a warm-water-and-parasite event \u2014 before drawing the distinction: the operative variable is temperature, 2026 was not a low-flow year, and the demanded remedy is warm lake water.<\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<script src=\"https:\/\/cdnjs.cloudflare.com\/ajax\/libs\/Chart.js\/4.4.1\/chart.umd.min.js\"><\/script>\n<script src=\"https:\/\/cdnjs.cloudflare.com\/ajax\/libs\/chartjs-plugin-annotation\/3.0.1\/chartjs-plugin-annotation.min.js\"><\/script>\n<script>\nconst DATA = {\"_meta\":{\"title\":\"Klamath Chinook 0+ outmigration vs. mainstem temp & C. shasta\",\"built\":\"2026-06-05\",\"x_range\":[\"2026-01-22\",\"2026-06-21\"],\"first_cs_detection\":\"4\/2\",\"chinook_units\":\"weekly catch (raw\/expanded as reported per trap)\"},\"_provenance\":{\"temperature\":\"REAL daily mean\/min\/max from Karuk Tribe Water Quality Program Final 15-min CSV (Klamath blw Iron Gate). Window 1\/22-6\/4. Used with Karuk Tribe permission. PROVISIONAL.\",\"chinook\":\"WEEKLY catch, summed across ALL reporting traps (slides 85-96): Shasta, Scott, Bogus, Fall, Shovel, Jenny + ODFW Spencer & Klamath RST. Per-trap weekly SHAPE digitized from each figure; SCALED to published season total; Week-21 pinned where given. Mixes CDFW expanded-raw with ODFW raw. Mainstem corridor traps (sl.97) excluded - no numeric table.\",\"qpcr_positive\":\"VERBATIM slide 84 Table 1, reach K4. Season 46% POI (319\/696); 18% of infected >3 logs. 2025 = 22% \/ 0%.\",\"distended_belly\":\"REAL: distended_pct = combined corridor visual prevalence (Iron Gate+I-5+Kinsman), AFWO 5\/29\/2026 report Table 4. Visual sign UNDERCOUNTS infection vs qPCR (peaks ~12% vs qPCR 70-100%).\",\"calibration\":\"poi_pct\/highload_pct = measured prevalence (% of weekly ~30-fish sample, reach K4). infected_weekly = weekly catch x weekly prevalence = est. number of passing fish infected (fish units, comparable to catch). lethal_weekly uses the >3-log column. Couples tributary catch to corridor-reach prevalence by week; n~30\/sample so wide CIs; >3-log denominator (of-sample vs of-positive) is uncertain.\",\"caveats\":\"Per-week values approximate (digitized). Different traps count different streams; tributary sums do not double-count, but units are mixed. ALL PROVISIONAL - Karuk consent + Nathan Rietmann review before external use.\"},\"labels\":[\"1\/22\",\"1\/23\",\"1\/24\",\"1\/25\",\"1\/26\",\"1\/27\",\"1\/28\",\"1\/29\",\"1\/30\",\"1\/31\",\"2\/1\",\"2\/2\",\"2\/3\",\"2\/4\",\"2\/5\",\"2\/6\",\"2\/7\",\"2\/8\",\"2\/9\",\"2\/10\",\"2\/11\",\"2\/12\",\"2\/13\",\"2\/14\",\"2\/15\",\"2\/16\",\"2\/17\",\"2\/18\",\"2\/19\",\"2\/20\",\"2\/21\",\"2\/22\",\"2\/23\",\"2\/24\",\"2\/25\",\"2\/26\",\"2\/27\",\"2\/28\",\"3\/1\",\"3\/2\",\"3\/3\",\"3\/4\",\"3\/5\",\"3\/6\",\"3\/7\",\"3\/8\",\"3\/9\",\"3\/10\",\"3\/11\",\"3\/12\",\"3\/13\",\"3\/14\",\"3\/15\",\"3\/16\",\"3\/17\",\"3\/18\",\"3\/19\",\"3\/20\",\"3\/21\",\"3\/22\",\"3\/23\",\"3\/24\",\"3\/25\",\"3\/26\",\"3\/27\",\"3\/28\",\"3\/29\",\"3\/30\",\"3\/31\",\"4\/1\",\"4\/2\",\"4\/3\",\"4\/4\",\"4\/5\",\"4\/6\",\"4\/7\",\"4\/8\",\"4\/9\",\"4\/10\",\"4\/11\",\"4\/12\",\"4\/13\",\"4\/14\",\"4\/15\",\"4\/16\",\"4\/17\",\"4\/18\",\"4\/19\",\"4\/20\",\"4\/21\",\"4\/22\",\"4\/23\",\"4\/24\",\"4\/25\",\"4\/26\",\"4\/27\",\"4\/28\",\"4\/29\",\"4\/30\",\"5\/1\",\"5\/2\",\"5\/3\",\"5\/4\",\"5\/5\",\"5\/6\",\"5\/7\",\"5\/8\",\"5\/9\",\"5\/10\",\"5\/11\",\"5\/12\",\"5\/13\",\"5\/14\",\"5\/15\",\"5\/16\",\"5\/17\",\"5\/18\",\"5\/19\",\"5\/20\",\"5\/21\",\"5\/22\",\"5\/23\",\"5\/24\",\"5\/25\",\"5\/26\",\"5\/27\",\"5\/28\",\"5\/29\",\"5\/30\",\"5\/31\",\"6\/1\",\"6\/2\",\"6\/3\",\"6\/4\",\"6\/5\",\"6\/6\",\"6\/7\",\"6\/8\",\"6\/9\",\"6\/10\",\"6\/11\",\"6\/12\",\"6\/13\",\"6\/14\",\"6\/15\",\"6\/16\",\"6\/17\",\"6\/18\",\"6\/19\",\"6\/20\",\"6\/21\"],\"iso\":[\"2026-01-22\",\"2026-01-23\",\"2026-01-24\",\"2026-01-25\",\"2026-01-26\",\"2026-01-27\",\"2026-01-28\",\"2026-01-29\",\"2026-01-30\",\"2026-01-31\",\"2026-02-01\",\"2026-02-02\",\"2026-02-03\",\"2026-02-04\",\"2026-02-05\",\"2026-02-06\",\"2026-02-07\",\"2026-02-08\",\"2026-02-09\",\"2026-02-10\",\"2026-02-11\",\"2026-02-12\",\"2026-02-13\",\"2026-02-14\",\"2026-02-15\",\"2026-02-16\",\"2026-02-17\",\"2026-02-18\",\"2026-02-19\",\"2026-02-20\",\"2026-02-21\",\"2026-02-22\",\"2026-02-23\",\"2026-02-24\",\"2026-02-25\",\"2026-02-26\",\"2026-02-27\",\"2026-02-28\",\"2026-03-01\",\"2026-03-02\",\"2026-03-03\",\"2026-03-04\",\"2026-03-05\",\"2026-03-06\",\"2026-03-07\",\"2026-03-08\",\"2026-03-09\",\"2026-03-10\",\"2026-03-11\",\"2026-03-12\",\"2026-03-13\",\"2026-03-14\",\"2026-03-15\",\"2026-03-16\",\"2026-03-17\",\"2026-03-18\",\"2026-03-19\",\"2026-03-20\",\"2026-03-21\",\"2026-03-22\",\"2026-03-23\",\"2026-03-24\",\"2026-03-25\",\"2026-03-26\",\"2026-03-27\",\"2026-03-28\",\"2026-03-29\",\"2026-03-30\",\"2026-03-31\",\"2026-04-01\",\"2026-04-02\",\"2026-04-03\",\"2026-04-04\",\"2026-04-05\",\"2026-04-06\",\"2026-04-07\",\"2026-04-08\",\"2026-04-09\",\"2026-04-10\",\"2026-04-11\",\"2026-04-12\",\"2026-04-13\",\"2026-04-14\",\"2026-04-15\",\"2026-04-16\",\"2026-04-17\",\"2026-04-18\",\"2026-04-19\",\"2026-04-20\",\"2026-04-21\",\"2026-04-22\",\"2026-04-23\",\"2026-04-24\",\"2026-04-25\",\"2026-04-26\",\"2026-04-27\",\"2026-04-28\",\"2026-04-29\",\"2026-04-30\",\"2026-05-01\",\"2026-05-02\",\"2026-05-03\",\"2026-05-04\",\"2026-05-05\",\"2026-05-06\",\"2026-05-07\",\"2026-05-08\",\"2026-05-09\",\"2026-05-10\",\"2026-05-11\",\"2026-05-12\",\"2026-05-13\",\"2026-05-14\",\"2026-05-15\",\"2026-05-16\",\"2026-05-17\",\"2026-05-18\",\"2026-05-19\",\"2026-05-20\",\"2026-05-21\",\"2026-05-22\",\"2026-05-23\",\"2026-05-24\",\"2026-05-25\",\"2026-05-26\",\"2026-05-27\",\"2026-05-28\",\"2026-05-29\",\"2026-05-30\",\"2026-05-31\",\"2026-06-01\",\"2026-06-02\",\"2026-06-03\",\"2026-06-04\",\"2026-06-05\",\"2026-06-06\",\"2026-06-07\",\"2026-06-08\",\"2026-06-09\",\"2026-06-10\",\"2026-06-11\",\"2026-06-12\",\"2026-06-13\",\"2026-06-14\",\"2026-06-15\",\"2026-06-16\",\"2026-06-17\",\"2026-06-18\",\"2026-06-19\",\"2026-06-20\",\"2026-06-21\"],\"temp_mean\":[4.5,4.8,4.6,3.4,4.1,4.4,5.0,5.4,5.7,5.4,5.6,5.6,5.4,5.6,6.0,6.2,6.1,6.8,6.6,5.9,6.6,6.9,6.9,7.1,7.2,7.2,5.8,5.1,5.1,4.8,4.6,5.3,5.3,6.4,7.0,6.8,8.0,8.1,8.5,8.6,8.7,9.1,8.5,8.3,9.2,10.1,9.8,9.0,8.5,9.3,9.9,10.4,9.9,10.8,11.4,11.9,12.2,12.5,13.2,12.0,12.6,13.8,13.9,12.1,12.0,12.7,12.9,12.2,12.6,12.3,10.9,10.8,11.9,12.8,13.5,13.9,14.0,14.3,13.8,13.1,12.6,12.5,12.6,12.4,11.1,11.3,12.2,12.8,12.3,12.6,12.3,12.5,13.1,13.3,12.9,12.2,12.9,13.8,14.7,15.1,15.6,15.9,16.3,16.5,17.2,17.6,17.5,17.7,18.3,18.7,19.0,18.1,17.2,17.0,16.2,15.3,15.3,16.0,16.7,17.5,18.3,19.1,19.1,18.2,16.7,15.3,15.3,16.1,16.6,16.6,17.4,18.0,19.0,18.8,18.6,18.0,16.8,15.8,17.0,17.5,18.0,19.1,19.7,20.1,21.0,21.6,21.5,21.6,20.5,20.8,21.0],\"temp_min\":[3.4,3.6,3.6,2.3,3.0,3.4,4.1,4.8,4.8,4.4,4.6,4.3,4.0,4.1,4.7,4.8,5.0,6.4,5.8,5.0,5.7,5.7,5.5,6.4,6.4,6.4,5.1,4.1,4.3,3.8,4.2,4.3,4.7,5.6,6.3,5.9,7.1,7.7,7.9,7.5,6.9,8.3,7.6,6.7,7.3,8.2,8.2,7.9,6.8,7.2,7.9,9.2,8.1,8.7,9.1,9.5,9.8,10.3,11.4,10.0,10.4,12.0,12.7,10.5,9.6,10.6,10.9,11.6,11.6,11.3,9.6,8.6,9.6,10.9,11.4,12.2,12.3,13.2,12.7,12.5,11.5,11.4,10.9,11.3,9.5,9.2,10.0,11.9,11.6,11.6,11.0,10.4,11.0,11.5,11.5,10.4,10.7,11.6,12.4,13.2,14.1,14.3,14.5,14.4,15.0,15.5,15.5,15.5,16.2,16.4,17.3,16.4,15.4,15.5,15.1,14.1,13.3,13.9,14.8,15.4,16.2,17.2,17.3,16.7,15.8,14.5,14.0,15.0,15.0,14.4,15.1,15.7,17.4,16.8,16.3,16.3,15.1,14.9,14.8,15.4,15.5,16.7,17.4,17.5,18.7,19.3,19.3,19.7,19.6,18.6,18.9],\"temp_max\":[5.5,6.2,5.5,4.4,5.3,5.3,6.0,6.2,6.9,6.4,6.9,6.8,6.8,7.1,7.5,7.6,7.2,7.4,7.6,6.7,7.8,8.4,8.1,7.8,7.8,8.1,6.5,6.0,6.0,6.4,5.0,6.3,5.8,7.4,8.2,7.7,9.3,8.5,9.2,9.9,10.4,10.3,9.9,10.2,11.4,12.2,11.7,10.4,10.3,11.6,11.9,12.3,11.6,13.2,13.8,14.4,14.7,14.9,15.4,14.0,14.8,16.0,15.4,13.7,14.5,15.0,15.2,12.7,14.0,13.1,12.3,13.2,14.2,15.0,15.9,15.8,16.3,16.0,15.1,13.7,14.0,13.8,14.8,13.0,12.7,13.6,14.6,13.7,13.1,14.1,13.7,14.9,15.6,15.5,14.3,14.1,15.4,16.2,17.2,17.3,17.6,17.4,18.4,18.7,19.6,20.1,19.8,20.3,20.6,21.2,21.0,19.8,19.3,18.8,17.7,16.9,17.4,18.2,18.7,19.9,20.5,21.1,21.3,20.0,17.8,16.9,16.8,17.6,18.7,19.2,20.0,20.5,21.0,21.2,21.1,20.1,18.6,16.8,19.7,19.9,21.0,21.9,22.4,23.0,23.7,24.2,24.0,24.1,21.8,23.3,23.5],\"chinook\":[19219,19219,19219,19219,19219,19219,19219,58584,58584,58584,58584,58584,58584,58584,88686,88686,88686,88686,88686,88686,88686,72640,72640,72640,72640,72640,72640,72640,54272,54272,54272,54272,54272,54272,54272,45418,45418,45418,45418,45418,45418,45418,41118,41118,41118,41118,41118,41118,41118,33939,33939,33939,33939,33939,33939,33939,27286,27286,27286,27286,27286,27286,27286,21446,21446,21446,21446,21446,21446,21446,17611,17611,17611,17611,17611,17611,17611,15400,15400,15400,15400,15400,15400,15400,14947,14947,14947,14947,14947,14947,14947,14320,14320,14320,14320,14320,14320,14320,13496,13496,13496,13496,13496,13496,13496,20166,20166,20166,20166,20166,20166,20166,12054,12054,12054,12054,12054,12054,12054,6253,6253,6253,6253,6253,6253,6253,3770,3770,3770,3770,3770,3770,3770,3770,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null],\"chinook_by_trap\":{\"Shasta (CDFW, sl.87)\":{\"4\":18233,\"5\":55712,\"6\":81036,\"7\":60777,\"8\":38492,\"9\":25324,\"10\":16207,\"11\":11142,\"12\":8104,\"13\":6078,\"14\":4558,\"15\":3545,\"16\":3039,\"17\":2634,\"18\":2431,\"19\":2330,\"20\":2228,\"21\":2201,\"22\":2026},\"Scott (CDFW, sl.89)\":{\"4\":186,\"5\":372,\"6\":651,\"7\":558,\"8\":465,\"9\":418,\"10\":558,\"11\":511,\"12\":465,\"13\":418,\"14\":372,\"15\":353,\"16\":335,\"17\":316,\"18\":307,\"19\":297,\"20\":446,\"21\":709,\"22\":279},\"Bogus Cr (CDFW, sl.91)\":{\"4\":500,\"5\":1500,\"6\":4000,\"7\":6000,\"8\":8000,\"9\":10000,\"10\":11999,\"11\":11000,\"12\":8000,\"13\":5000,\"14\":2500,\"15\":1000,\"16\":600,\"17\":400,\"18\":300,\"19\":200},\"Fall Cr (CDFW, sl.93)\":{\"4\":300,\"5\":1000,\"6\":3000,\"7\":5000,\"8\":6499,\"9\":7999,\"10\":8999,\"11\":5999,\"12\":3500,\"13\":1200,\"14\":500,\"15\":300,\"16\":150,\"17\":100,\"18\":80,\"19\":50},\"Shovel Cr (CDFW, sl.94)\":{\"7\":206,\"8\":515,\"9\":1031,\"10\":2061,\"11\":3092,\"12\":4123,\"13\":5154,\"14\":6184,\"15\":7215,\"16\":8246,\"17\":7215,\"18\":5154,\"19\":3092,\"20\":1031,\"21\":115,\"22\":52},\"Jenny Cr (CDFW, sl.96)\":{\"7\":100,\"8\":300,\"9\":601,\"10\":1202,\"11\":2003,\"12\":2804,\"13\":3205,\"14\":3004,\"15\":2203,\"16\":1402,\"17\":801,\"18\":501,\"19\":300},\"Spencer Cr (ODFW, sl.85)\":{\"9\":46,\"10\":91,\"11\":183,\"12\":274,\"13\":365,\"14\":456,\"15\":730,\"16\":1095,\"17\":2738,\"18\":4564,\"19\":13691,\"20\":8215,\"21\":3128,\"22\":1369},\"Klamath RST (ODFW, sl.86)\":{\"11\":9,\"12\":18,\"13\":27,\"14\":36,\"15\":54,\"16\":80,\"17\":116,\"18\":161,\"19\":205,\"20\":134,\"21\":100,\"22\":45}},\"qpcr_positive\":[{\"x\":\"3\/20\",\"y\":0},{\"x\":\"3\/24\",\"y\":0},{\"x\":\"4\/2\",\"y\":1},{\"x\":\"4\/10\",\"y\":3},{\"x\":\"4\/17\",\"y\":14},{\"x\":\"4\/24\",\"y\":28},{\"x\":\"4\/28\",\"y\":30},{\"x\":\"5\/7\",\"y\":27}],\"distended_belly\":[],\"infected_weekly\":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,581,581,581,581,581,581,581,1540,1540,1540,1540,1540,1540,1540,6980,6980,6980,6980,6980,6980,6980,14320,14320,14320,14320,14320,14320,14320,13496,13496,13496,13496,13496,13496,13496,18149,18149,18149,18149,18149,18149,18149,10849,10849,10849,10849,10849,10849,10849,5628,5628,5628,5628,5628,5628,5628,3393,3393,3393,3393,3393,3393,3393,3393,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null],\"lethal_weekly\":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,528,528,528,528,528,528,528,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2989,2989,2989,2989,2989,2989,2989,6730,6730,6730,6730,6730,6730,6730,6343,6343,6343,6343,6343,6343,6343,4033,4033,4033,4033,4033,4033,4033,2411,2411,2411,2411,2411,2411,2411,1251,1251,1251,1251,1251,1251,1251,754,754,754,754,754,754,754,754,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null],\"poi_pct\":[{\"x\":\"3\/20\",\"y\":0},{\"x\":\"3\/24\",\"y\":0},{\"x\":\"4\/2\",\"y\":3.3},{\"x\":\"4\/10\",\"y\":10.0},{\"x\":\"4\/17\",\"y\":46.7},{\"x\":\"4\/24\",\"y\":93.3},{\"x\":\"4\/28\",\"y\":100.0},{\"x\":\"5\/7\",\"y\":90.0}],\"highload_pct\":[{\"x\":\"4\/2\",\"y\":3},{\"x\":\"4\/17\",\"y\":20},{\"x\":\"4\/24\",\"y\":50},{\"x\":\"4\/28\",\"y\":47},{\"x\":\"5\/7\",\"y\":20}],\"distended_pct\":[{\"x\":\"2\/26\",\"y\":0.0},{\"x\":\"3\/4\",\"y\":0.0},{\"x\":\"3\/11\",\"y\":0.0},{\"x\":\"3\/18\",\"y\":0.0},{\"x\":\"3\/25\",\"y\":0.3},{\"x\":\"4\/1\",\"y\":0.5},{\"x\":\"4\/8\",\"y\":0.7},{\"x\":\"4\/15\",\"y\":1.2},{\"x\":\"4\/22\",\"y\":0.6},{\"x\":\"4\/29\",\"y\":2.8},{\"x\":\"5\/6\",\"y\":4.9},{\"x\":\"5\/13\",\"y\":12.0},{\"x\":\"5\/20\",\"y\":4.0},{\"x\":\"5\/28\",\"y\":6.0},{\"x\":\"6\/4\",\"y\":7.8}],\"_extra_qpcr_by_reach\":{\"K6\":[{\"x\":\"3\/25\",\"y\":0},{\"x\":\"4\/2\",\"y\":0},{\"x\":\"4\/7\",\"y\":0},{\"x\":\"4\/15\",\"y\":21},{\"x\":\"4\/21\",\"y\":30},{\"x\":\"5\/6\",\"y\":25}],\"K5\":[{\"x\":\"3\/17\",\"y\":0},{\"x\":\"3\/25\",\"y\":0},{\"x\":\"3\/31\",\"y\":0},{\"x\":\"4\/6\",\"y\":1},{\"x\":\"4\/15\",\"y\":28},{\"x\":\"4\/21\",\"y\":29},{\"x\":\"4\/28\",\"y\":24},{\"x\":\"5\/7\",\"y\":29},{\"x\":\"5\/12\",\"y\":29}],\"K4\":[{\"x\":\"3\/20\",\"y\":0},{\"x\":\"3\/24\",\"y\":0},{\"x\":\"4\/2\",\"y\":1},{\"x\":\"4\/10\",\"y\":3},{\"x\":\"4\/17\",\"y\":14},{\"x\":\"4\/24\",\"y\":28},{\"x\":\"4\/28\",\"y\":30},{\"x\":\"5\/7\",\"y\":27}]},\"season_stats_2026\":{\"overall_POI\":\"46% (319\/696)\",\"high_load_gt3logs\":\"18% of infected\",\"vs_2025\":\"22% POI, 0% >3 logs\"},\"calibration\":{\"combined_run\":580625,\"emigrated_before_first_detection\":\"462,607 (80% of run)\",\"est_infected_outmigrants\":\"74,937 (13% of run)\"}};\nfunction css(v){ return getComputedStyle(document.documentElement).getPropertyValue(v).trim(); }\nconst INK='#2E2A22', MUTED='#5C5648', GRID='rgba(46,42,34,0.10)', LABELBACK='rgba(251,247,236,0.9)';\nChart.defaults.color = MUTED;\nChart.defaults.font.family = \"'Spline Sans', system-ui, sans-serif\";\n\n\/\/ horizontal temperature-risk bands (on the temp axis)\nconst RISK = [\n  {y0:0,  y1:15, c:'rgba(57,140,74,1)',  fill:'rgba(57,140,74,.08)',  t:'low <15\u00b0C'},\n  {y0:15, y1:16, c:'rgba(184,140,30,1)', fill:'rgba(184,140,30,.10)', t:'rising 15\u201316'},\n  {y0:16, y1:18, c:'rgba(165,68,40,1)',  fill:'rgba(165,68,40,.08)',  t:'high 16\u201318'},\n  {y0:18, y1:25, c:'rgba(196,57,43,1)',  fill:'rgba(196,57,43,.08)',  t:'severe >18'},\n];\nconst annotations = {};\nRISK.forEach((r,i)=>{\n  annotations['band'+i] = {\n    type:'box', yScaleID:'yTemp', yMin:r.y0, yMax:r.y1,\n    backgroundColor:r.fill, borderWidth:0,\n    label:{ display:true, content:r.t, position:{x:'start',y:'center'},\n            color:r.c, backgroundColor:LABELBACK, font:{size:10}, padding:3 }\n  };\n});\nannotations['firstCs'] = {\n  type:'line', xScaleID:'x', xMin:DATA._meta.first_cs_detection, xMax:DATA._meta.first_cs_detection,\n  borderColor:'rgba(196,57,43,.9)', borderWidth:1.5, borderDash:[5,4],\n  label:{ display:true, content:'first C. shasta detection (4\/2)', position:'start',\n          rotation:90, color:'rgba(196,57,43,1)', backgroundColor:LABELBACK, font:{size:10}, padding:3 }\n};\nannotations['hatchRelease'] = {\n  type:'line', xScaleID:'x', xMin:'5\/14', xMax:'5\/14',\n  borderColor:'rgba(184,132,31,.92)', borderWidth:1.6, borderDash:[6,4],\n  label:{ display:true, content:'hatchery release \\u00b7 May 14', position:'end',\n          rotation:90, color:'#8a5b0f', backgroundColor:LABELBACK, font:{size:10,weight:'600'}, padding:3 }\n};\n\nannotations['killBand'] = {\n  type:'box', xScaleID:'x', xMin:'6\/2', xMax:'6\/5',\n  backgroundColor:'rgba(122,31,31,.15)', borderColor:'rgba(122,31,31,.5)', borderWidth:1, borderDash:[3,3],\n  label:{ display:true, content:'hatchery die-off \\u00b7 Jun 2\\u20135', position:{x:'center',y:'center'},\n          rotation:90, color:'#7a1f1f', backgroundColor:LABELBACK, font:{size:9.5,weight:'600'}, padding:3 }\n};\n\nnew Chart(document.getElementById('kidSalmonChart'), {\n  type:'line',\n  data:{ labels:DATA.labels, datasets:[\n    \/\/ temp band: min (hidden line) then max filled down to min\n    { label:'_tempmin', data:DATA.temp_min, yAxisID:'yTemp', borderWidth:0,\n      pointRadius:0, fill:false, tension:.3, order:9, pointStyle:'rect' },\n    { label:'temp daily min\u2013max', data:DATA.temp_max, yAxisID:'yTemp', borderWidth:0,\n      pointRadius:0, fill:'-1', backgroundColor:'rgba(74,143,168,.22)', tension:.3, order:9, pointStyle:'rect' },\n    \/\/ temp mean\n    { label:'mainstem temp (daily mean \u00b0C)', data:DATA.temp_mean, yAxisID:'yTemp',\n      borderColor:'#1F5C73', borderWidth:2, pointRadius:0, fill:false, tension:.3, order:5, pointStyle:'line' },\n    \/\/ chinook area\n    { label:'Chinook 0+ natural-origin (non-clipped) \u2014 all reporting traps, weekly catch',\n      data:DATA.chinook, yAxisID:'yFish', borderColor:'rgba(99,153,34,.95)',\n      backgroundColor:'rgba(99,153,34,.30)', borderWidth:1.5, pointRadius:0, fill:true,\n      stepped:'middle', pointStyle:'rect', order:6 },\n    \/\/ estimated INFECTED fish\/week (fish units, comparable to catch)\n    { label:'est. infected outmigrants \/ wk (catch \u00d7 prevalence)', data:DATA.infected_weekly,\n      yAxisID:'yFish', borderColor:'rgba(163,45,45,.95)', backgroundColor:'rgba(163,45,45,.34)',\n      borderWidth:1, pointRadius:0, fill:true, stepped:'middle', pointStyle:'rect', order:4 },\n    \/\/ measured prevalence (%) \u2014 squares\n    { label:'C. shasta prevalence % (reach K4 weekly sample)', data:DATA.poi_pct,\n      yAxisID:'yPOI', showLine:true, borderColor:'#A32D2D', backgroundColor:'#A32D2D',\n      borderWidth:1, borderDash:[2,3], pointStyle:'rect', pointRadius:5, order:1 },\n    \/\/ distended-belly prevalence (%) \u2014 diamonds (AFWO corridor visual sign)\n    { label:'distended-belly % (corridor visual sign, AFWO)', data:DATA.distended_pct,\n      yAxisID:'yPOI', showLine:true, borderColor:'#C0392B', backgroundColor:'#C0392B',\n      borderWidth:1, borderDash:[2,3], pointStyle:'rectRot', pointRadius:5, order:1 },\n  ]},\n  options:{\n    responsive:true, maintainAspectRatio:false, parsing:true,\n    interaction:{ mode:'index', intersect:false },\n    plugins:{\n      annotation:{ annotations },\n      legend:{ position:'bottom', labels:{ usePointStyle:true, pointStyleWidth:16, boxHeight:9, padding:12, color:INK,\n           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    title:{display:true,text:'C. shasta prevalence (% of weekly sample)',color:'#A32D2D'},\n              grid:{ drawOnChartArea:false }, ticks:{ color:'#A32D2D', callback:v=>v+'%' } },\n    }\n  }\n});\n\n\n\/* ===== Second chart: WY2026 UKL net inflow vs. Keno release + lake elevation ===== *\/\nconst DATA2 = { 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