Correcting K.I.D.’s Misinformation on Water Supply – What You Need to Know

Reclamation’s 2025-2029 policy for water management, developed under the Biden Administration, is extremely difficult to understand, even for the people who were in the room as it was developed. Misscommunications are likely to continue as we attempt to understand what options are available under this misguided policy.

On March 4, 2025, and in subsequent interactions with patrons and the KBID Board on March 7, K.I.D. shared inaccurate water supply projections. Here’s the real story, straight from today’s Bureau of Reclamation briefing at the Klamath Project Real Time Operations meeting:

  • Upper Klamath Lake Water Availability: As of March 7, 2025, Reclamation’s model, using the March 1 Normalized Wetness Index (NWI) 50% forecast, predicts 245,000 acre-feet of water will be available from Upper Klamath Lake by June 1, 2025. Note: This figure is provisional and could shift as we approach June based on weather and inflow conditions.
  • Lost River Contribution: After flood control operations (projected to continue until at least April 1), approximately 30,000 acre-feet of Lost River and Klamath Drainage District (KDD) pumped water is expected to remain stored in Upper Klamath Lake.  Note that Reclamation can rebuild some amount of additional storage after flood control releases.  We can assume KDD will continue pumping for several weeks, we also anticipate Gerber spills after flood control. Best estimates from Reclamation are 40-55,000 acre-feet of additional Lost River water available to UKL storage.
    USFWS Flexibility:     During a wet year like 2025, Reclamation anticipates that the refugees will not need most of the 43,000 acre-feet set aside for them, this was language Reclamation used to prioritize refuge water rights above those of the farmers’ contracts.  USFWS has been clear that this water could go through farmland before reaching the refuges which is a better use of the water and will improve water quality. Reclamation believes an additional 35,000 may be available for the irrigators, keeping 13,000 available for USFWS to manage.
  • What This Means: This is an improvement to the numbers K.I.D. has been citing recently.  245+40+35=320,000 acre feet.  However, in a year classified as very wet (with precipitation at 135% of normal and snowpack at 154% of normal as of March 1), K.I.D.’s contractual and legal obligations likely require 315,000–335,000 acre-feet to fully meet water right holders’ needs. We may fall short by 15,000 acre-feet.

Why This Matters: Despite the very wet conditions—Upper Klamath Lake’s net inflow forecast for April–September is 722,000 acre-feet (203% of median)—flood control measures and operational constraints imposed by Reclamation and NOAA Fisheries are limiting what’s available for legal water right holders for irrigation.

Stay informed as we track updates. Questions? Let’s discuss below.

Source: Klamath Project RTO Meeting, 07 March 2025, Bureau of Reclamation.